How to read an over/under line in the NBA

On an over/under line the Over wins if the player (or the game total) goes above the number and the Under wins if he finishes below it. With a 22.5-point line, 23 points is an Over and 22 points is an Under.

The hit rate shows in how many games the Over would have won: if a player cleared 22.5 points in 7 of his last 10 games, his Over hit rate is 70%. It is historical data, not a forecast: it tells you whether the line sits close to what the player usually does.

Common mistakes: looking only at the average (a 25-point average can hide games of 40 and of 10), ignoring minutes (a blowout cuts starters' playing time), not checking whether the player missed games through injury, and comparing against opponents of very different quality. That is why the player page lets you filter by home or away, minutes and opponent level.

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