How we calculate a prop's projection and edge

The BucketsBase projection blends recent form and the season: 60% of the average of the last 10 games and 40% of the season average. That result is multiplied by an opponent factor.

The opponent factor compares what that team allows to the player's position with the league average, and is capped at ±15% so a single extreme number does not dominate. The edge is the difference between the projection and the sportsbook line (reversed for the Under).

It is a simple, transparent model, not a guarantee: it does not include teammates' absences, expected pace or blowout risk. A positive edge means the projection is above the line, not that the bet will win. Always gamble responsibly.

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